Will Republicans have low turnout of voters in 2026 midterms?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 202626d
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 50%
Previsores
1
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
15/10/26, 07:38 UTC14/11/26, 23:00 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolution criteria
- Because the prompt does not define a specific numeric threshold, baseline election year for comparison (e.g., relative to 2018 or 2022 turnout), or specific data source, the market creator should update these criteria to establish the specific benchmark for "low turnout" before the election.
- If no specific threshold is set by the creator, this market will resolve to YES if official voter file analyses or reputable election data sources—such as the UF Election Lab or the U.S. Census Bureau's voting survey—indicate that turnout among self-identified Republicans or registered Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections fell below recent historical midterm baselines (e.g., 2018 and 2022).
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- Voter participation in U.S. midterm elections is measured as a percentage of the Voting-Eligible Population (VEP) or registered voters.
- Party-specific turnout rates are typically evaluated post-election using state-level voter registration files, validated voter surveys, or exit polling data.
