Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
InflaçãoOne-OffMacro e economiaEconomia7a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 71%
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63
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado28/08/26, 12:50 UTC31/12/33, 23:59 UTC
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William MacAskill, along with two others, has accepted a bet "on explosive AI-driven growth" proposed by macroeconomist Ben Moll, with one other joining his side of the bet, offering 4:1 odds against (implying a 20% change of YES):
- [tweet]This market will resolve when their bet is resolved unless they somehow abandon the bet, in which case I will attempt to apply the specified resolution criteria, which are as follows:
- The fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q, up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q−4 (i.e., as of one year before Q).
- Otherwise the no-fast-growth side wins.
- Data series: the official BEA measure — "Real gross domestic product per capita," U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 7.1 (series A939RX; quarterly, seasonally adjusted). "Real" means inflation-adjusted: nominal GDP deflated using the BEA's chain-type GDP price index (the GDP deflator), currently expressed in chained 2017 dollars.
- The series is currently available on FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA
