Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 86%
Previsores
82
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado24/11/23, 00:08 UTC28/12/27, 12:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Based on this article:
- https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/
- For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars.
- The orbit has to be stable
- OR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface
- If it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 86% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) é resolvido?
- Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) deverá ser resolvido em 28 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Based on this article: