Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
WeatherOne-OffIARegulamentação3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 70.2%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado1/11/23, 19:46 UTC2/01/30, 06:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
Manifold MarketsWill North Dakota ban cloud seeding?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegras
"Mass-movement political activism" = groups that organize protests, do letter-writing campaigns to congressmen, etc... people talking into megaphones, a somewhat simplified message & somewhat adversarial approach to politics, you get the idea.
- As opposed to think-tank-style groups that are primarily focused on elite persuasion or shaping detailed legislation.
- Examples include "PauseAI" and the people who hired this truck protesting against Responsible Scaling Policies.
- The message of the activism doesn't have to be "pause AI" or even X-risk focused; it just has to be broadly pro-regulation of AI.
- To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support mass-movement AI activism, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
