Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?
BlackRockOne-OffFedPolíticaBancos centraisMacro e economia3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.5%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
12/01/26, 01:55 UTC15/05/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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ForecastExWhich central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target is set to 0.00% (or a range with 0% as the lower bound, such as 0.00%-0.25%) at any point during the tenure of Jerome Powell's successor as Federal Reserve Chair.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Federal Reserve Board at https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/.
- The market resolves NO if the successor's tenure ends without the rate ever reaching 0%.
- Powell's term as chair expires in May 2026, and the five candidates on the shortlist are Fed governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock head of fixed income Rick Rieder.
- The Fed has twice lowered the rate to 0.0% to 0.25%—the first time during the financial crisis of 2008, and the second time in March 2020.
