Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 85% em 8 de outubro de 2026.

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 85%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 2 horas

Desatualizado

23/12/23, 18:30 UTC1/01/31, 22:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2030, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, meeting these criteria:

Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be detailed in a peer-reviewed article in a high-impact scientific journal of significant academic standing.
Fields pertinent to this evidence include astronomy and astrobiology, among others.
Journals like 'Nature' and 'Science' are ideal, but other journals of comparable standing are also acceptable.
Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or governmental bodies.
Potential agencies include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).