Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 20:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 95.8%
Previsores
97
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 30 minutos
25/03/23, 11:43 UTC31/12/26, 12:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?
Manifold MarketsEmmanuel Macron to finish his presidential term in France?
FutuurWill Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsMacron out by which date?
PolymarketRegras
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15621/macron-no-longer-president-before-2027/ In March 2023, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, is facing increasing pressure over his controversial [pension reform bill](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/16/emmanuel-macron-uses-special-powers-to-force-pension-reform-france), which he pushed through without a final vote by the [National Assembly, invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution](https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-invokes-nuclear-option-to-force-through-his-pensions-reform-in-huge-political-setback/).
- This move has sparked [nationwide protests](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65057249) and led to some of the worst street violence in recent years.
- The reform aims to raise the minimum retirement age from [62 to 64](https://www.nytimes.com/article/france-pension-strikes-macron-explainer.html) to improve the financial sustainability of the French pension system.
- Strikes and demonstrations have caused widespread disruption in France, with at least [one million](https://www.npr.org/2023/03/24/1165759889/more-than-1-million-demonstrate-across-france-against-pension-reforms) people participating in protests at one point.
- Macron's approval rating has dropped as low as [28%](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230322-macron-breaks-silence-on-france-s-bitter-pension-battle-the-key-takeaways), as two-thirds of the French population oppose the law.
- As the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/b78f2a89-1062-4423-a4ba-fb4cdc56c683) points out: > French anger transcends pensions and Macron’s high-handedness.
