Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 50.3%
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472
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado23/03/24, 19:19 UTC2/01/45, 04:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketRegras
Open until either event happens
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
- Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Mercados abertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 103,1 mil
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- € 57,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 57,4 mil
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- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 mais resultados
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- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 mais resultados
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- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
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POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- € 817,9 mil
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- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 50% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? é resolvido?
- Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2045.
- Como Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Open until either event happens