Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)
IAOne-Off8a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 52.1%
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7
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado18/01/25, 20:28 UTC18/02/35, 03:59 UTC
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Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent AI researcher and rationalist, has made public bets regarding UFOs, expressing skepticism about their extraterrestrial origin.
- His current stance on UFOs is rooted in skepticism of the extraterrestrial hypothesis, arguing that any advanced civilization capable of interstellar travel would likely be superintelligent and would have already had a visible impact on Earth.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, within one year after losing his UFO bet, Eliezer Yudkowsky makes public statements (via blog posts, social media, interviews, or other public forums) explicitly connecting or attributing the UFO phenomenon to artificial intelligence or AI-related technology.
- The market will resolve NO if:
- Yudkowsky does not make such associations within the one-year timeframe
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 52% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) é resolvido?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) deverá ser resolvido em 18 de fevereiro de 2035.
- Como Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent AI researcher and rationalist, has made public bets regarding UFOs, expressing skepticism about their extraterrestrial origin.