Donald Trump morrerá ou ficará gravemente doente antes do fim do seu mandato?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleição2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 83.8%
Previsores
979
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado12/11/24, 19:10 UTC19/01/29, 21:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will Donald Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die during his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRegras
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- I won’t be betting on this market.
- Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.
- The intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.
