Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?
Política dos EUAOne-OffIATecnologia2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 07:03 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 62.9%
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado18/08/26, 03:44 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will China have active export controls on silicon metal (MG-Si) on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China have active, unresumed export controls on graphite anode material (HS 3801.10/3801.90) on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China have active export controls on zirconium oxychloride (ZOC) on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketThird-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.
- Qualifying instruments: an "is-informed" letter, a BIS rule or order, or an Entity List/end-use control that has the effect of requiring a license for a named US or foreign company's frontier model or weights.
- Must target models or weights.
- Controls on chips, compute, cloud/IaaS access, semiconductor tooling, or datacenter equipment do NOT count, no matter how AI-relevant.
- Must name a company other than Anthropic.
- Additional actions against Anthropic, or modifications/exemptions to the existing Anthropic IIL, do not count.
