Will Clarence Thomas's replacement be appointed by a Democratic president?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleição6a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 04:28 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 55.4%
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13
Tipo de pergunta
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado19/01/26, 19:23 UTC19/01/33, 19:18 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a Democratic president appoints Clarence Thomas's replacement to the Supreme Court.
- This market resolves NO if a Republican president appoints his replacement.
- Resolution will be determined by the party affiliation of the president who nominates and the Senate that confirms the replacement justice.
- The replacement must specifically fill Thomas's seat—expansion of the Court or replacement of other justices (Alito, Sotomayor, etc.) does not count.
- Thomas has served as an associate justice of the Supreme Court since 1991, and has surpassed Justice Hugo Black to become the fifth-longest-serving justice in U.S. Supreme Court history as of November 2025.