Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 3% or more and lose?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleição1m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 51%
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado8/10/26, 08:14 UTC30/11/26, 23:59 UTC
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https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
- Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate leads the final polling average for their race by 3.00% or more and loses.
- The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.
