Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
One-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolítica3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 55.9%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado26/06/26, 13:08 UTC31/12/26, 20:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will any new country trigger the process to become a CSTO member in 2026?
FutuurWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
KalshiWhat is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5?
Manifold MarketsNATO article 5 before 2027?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, a party to the Collective Security Treaty formally invokes Article 4 of the treaty and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, or at least one of its member states, acts upon the request.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.
- This market is set to close at 21:00 UTC on 31 December 2026.
Mercados abertos
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 473 mil
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.6pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 mais resultados
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA+0.5pt8%
- International Court of Justice-1.0pt6%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339-0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354+2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-5.0pt22.7%
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change-1.0pt68.7%
- Decrease+1.5pt28.3%
- Increase-1.3pt3%
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026? é resolvido?
- Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria