Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
PolíticaGeopolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAOriente Médio2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 29 de out. de 2026, 13:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 69%
Previsores
33
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado ontem
Desatualizado7/03/26, 15:21 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Congress formally declares war on Iran through a joint resolution, as specified in Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution.
- Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war since World War II, instead relying on authorizations for use of military force (AUMFs).
- For this market, only a formal declaration of war legislation explicitly using the phrase "declaration of war" counts as YES.
- An AUMF or military action without a formal declaration resolves NO.
- The market resolves by December 31,
