Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
PolíticaGeopolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle East3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93%
Previsores
29
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado7/03/26, 15:21 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill the congress of the U.S.A officially declare war on another country before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the war with Iran affect USD reserve currency status relative to yuan?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Congress formally declares war on Iran through a joint resolution, as specified in Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution.
- Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war since World War II, instead relying on authorizations for use of military force (AUMFs).
- For this market, only a formal declaration of war legislation explicitly using the phrase "declaration of war" counts as YES.
- An AUMF or military action without a formal declaration resolves NO.
- The market resolves by December 31,
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.5pt35.7%
- Édouard Philippe28.6%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.2%
+38 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 114,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 653,7 mil
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 186 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 485,2 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro-4.0pt49.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+6.0pt48.5%
- Renan Santos-0.7pt2%
+16 mais resultados
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his bilateral with the Taoiseach of Ireland?
- Irish Open+27.0pt99%
- Iran (3+ times)+47.0pt99%
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline+31.0pt99%
+24 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.3pt67%
- October 31+7.5pt44%
- September 30+3.5pt24%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance+0.7pt51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt18%
- Tucker Carlson4%
+39 mais resultados
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden
- Brazil Presidential election winner?
- Iowa Senate winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Texas Senate winner?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 93% em 12 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026 é resolvido?
- Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria