Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 91.9%
Previsores
18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado25/10/24, 23:02 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?
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KalshiRegras
if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or something, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market positively.
- The market resolves YES if he converts to Christianity in a meaningful way, ie if the average person would look at his actions and would describe him as having converted to christianity.
- Resolves NO in 2027 otherwise.
Mercados abertos
ReligionKALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No88%
- Yes-38.0pt12%
- Volume total
- € 10,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 9,5 mil
POLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volume total
- € 56,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 9,2 mil
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Pietro Parolin-0.8pt4%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 118 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 4,3
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No-0.5pt90%
- Yes+0.5pt10%
- Volume total
- € 797,6
- Volume 24h
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume total
- € 674,1
- Volume 24h
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Volume total
- € 3,1
- Volume 24h
- —
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 92% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027? é resolvido?
- Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or something, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market positively.