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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. IA
  3. Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
Manifold Markets

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

IATecnologiaCiênciaYearly23a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
2026 0%
Líder entre 15 opções
Previsores

31

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 5 dias

Desatualizado
11/08/25, 16:111/01/50, 22:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

202721%

Regras

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

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Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$62,604.58+2.36%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.42%EthereumETH$1,650.76+1.70%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.77%BNBBNB$594.25+1.58%XRPXRP$1.12+0.22%

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Regras

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.