Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31?
One-OffPolíticaSpaceTecnologiaGeopolíticaMiddle EastEurope3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 86.9%
Previsores
2
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado26/08/26, 16:05 UTC31/12/26, 11:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in US/Iran peace negotiations
Manifold MarketsWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill the US exit the Outer Space Treaty?
KalshiWill Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves YES if a United Nations body formally adopts a mandate to negotiate a legally binding instrument on autonomous weapon systems by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- Nonbinding appeals, expert meetings, working groups without a negotiating mandate, and negotiations outside the UN do not count.
- Source: United Nations.
- The market closes twelve hours before the deadline.
- Related markets from today's news
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 605,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 697,7 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 603,2 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 471,3 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 87% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31? é resolvido?
- Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if a United Nations body formally adopts a mandate to negotiate a legally binding instrument on autonomous weapon systems by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.