Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.7%
Previsores
30
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado6/01/26, 22:37 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- As of 2026, no member state has rescinded their membership, but this market resolves YES if any NATO member country formally notifies the United States of withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty before December 31, 2026.
- A country must send the United States a "notice of denunciation," which the U.S. would then pass on to the other Allies, and after a one-year waiting period, the country would be out.
- The market resolves YES if such notice is formally issued during 2026, regardless of when the one-year waiting period expires.
- Resolution will be verified through official NATO announcements or statements from the withdrawing country's government.
- Considerations
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a country leave NATO this year??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a country leave NATO this year? é resolvido?
- Will a country leave NATO this year? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will a country leave NATO this year? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria