Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 84.6%
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado2/01/26, 11:57 UTC2/01/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will 9 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 7 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 10 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich central banks will hike before 2027?
KalshiWhich banks will take Anthropic public?
KalshiRegras
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2026.
- The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list).
- This market will be resolved as YES if there are 6 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2026 in the column "Closing Date".
- This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
- This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2027, there are fewer than 6 records with a "Closing Date" in 2026 on the "Failed Bank List".
- Author betting rules
Mercados abertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume total
- € 12,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 180,5 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-13.0pt36%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-9.0pt32%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T21.2%
- $1.75T–$2.0T20.2%
- $1.5T–$1.75T19.2%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 105,1 mil
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+21.0pt84%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+13.0pt57%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 85% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2026? é resolvido?
- Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2026.