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  3. Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Republican primary for president?
Manifold Markets

Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Republican primary for president?

One-OffPolíticaUS Politics2a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
J D Vance 53.2%
Líder entre 14 opções
Previsores

69

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado ontem

Desatualizado
12/12/25, 22:3031/12/28, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

J D Vance53%

Regras

Resolves Yes to whoever finishes 1st or 2nd in a Republican primary for a STATE.

Manifold Markets
  • Non states like DC, Guam and the US Virgin Islands don’t count as states.
  • This is based on who receives the most votes in the state, delegates don’t count.
  • Must get over 5% to count.
  • If someone wins 98% and a write candidate gets 0.4% in 2nd, doesn’t count.
  • A write in candidate getting 2nd with 5.1% would be enough for resolving yes.

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Regras

Resolves Yes to whoever finishes 1st or 2nd in a Republican primary for a STATE.

Manifold Markets
  • Non states like DC, Guam and the US Virgin Islands don’t count as states.
  • This is based on who receives the most votes in the state, delegates don’t count.
  • Must get over 5% to count.
  • If someone wins 98% and a write candidate gets 0.4% in 2nd, doesn’t count.
  • A write in candidate getting 2nd with 5.1% would be enough for resolving yes.