Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualGannon Ken Van Dyke 98.9%Líder entre 14 opções
Previsores
211
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 37 minutos
7/01/26, 16:13 UTC1/01/27, 06:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?
Manifold MarketsMaduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by which date?
PolymarketWill Maduro have a trial in USA during 2026?
Manifold MarketsNicolás Maduro released from custody by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItEnd of 2026, will Tumbles think it was good Trump unilaterally removed Maduro?
Manifold MarketsRegras
As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100
- I will resolve after the end of 2026 based on my own appraisal of the consensus of publicly available, credible reporting at that time (not based on my own speculation).
- I may resolve to partial probabilities if there has been some reporting but it does not rise to the level of consensus or near-certainty in my view.
- I do not plan to get overly granular about the probabilities in this hypothetical partial resolution case - it's gonna be something like "50% we don't find out, 50% this person" or "25% we don't find out, 50% this person, 25% that person" if I go that route.
- I'll be mentally rounding probabilities above 90% or below 10% to 100% and 0% respectively when I resolve.
- Feel free to add answers (I'm making the market partially in the hopes people will do research to find likely candidates I don't know about) but please note that duplicate answers will be ignored (the first one wins), as will any answers that do not refer to a specific, named person (other than "we don't find out").
