Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Louisiana's 4th District?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20261m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualRepublican Party 96.2%Líder entre 3 opções
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2
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multiple choice
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Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado6/10/26, 05:54 UTC13/12/26, 12:00 UTC
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ForecastExRegras
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Louisiana's 4th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 open U.S. Representative primary if a candidate wins a majority of the votes; otherwise the December 12, 2026 open general election between the top two, whatever their parties (Act 7 of 2026; Louisiana SOS calendar).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by the named outcome or the named outcome who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
