Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Louisiana's 3rd District?
0.9 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20261m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualRepublican Party 96%-0.9ptLíder entre 3 opções
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2
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
-0.9 pts
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado6/10/26, 07:25 UTC13/12/26, 12:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Louisiana's 3rd congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 open U.S. Representative primary if a candidate wins a majority of the votes; otherwise the December 12, 2026 open general election between the top two, whatever their parties (Act 7 of 2026; Louisiana SOS calendar).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by the named outcome or the named outcome who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
