Previsão da comunidade atual
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%Líder entre 51 opções
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%Previsores
180
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado1/01/25, 23:47 UTC1/01/01, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat me in a game of chess by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Which of these models will beat me at chess once released? Resolves YES if they win, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- I'm rated about 1900 FIDE.
- When each of these models are released, I'll play a game of chess with them.
- On each move, I'll provide them with the game state in PGN and FEN notation.
- If the models make three illegal moves, they lose.
- Responses like Nbd2 vs. Nd2 will not count towards this.
