Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
2030 81.9%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
41
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+4.6 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado11/08/24, 16:42 UTC1/02/31, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
0%
0%
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At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.
- Resolves YES if I lose, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- On which years will I win?
- Some more details: I’m rated around 1900 FIDE, 2100 USCF.
- The game will be played at a rapid time control.
- I’ll select the LLM from the top 3 of the leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), or another benchmark if I believe it to be a better measure of general reasoning capabilities.
Mercados abertos
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- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
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- Grok-0.2pt8%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2030 em 82% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? é resolvido?
- When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2031.
- Como When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.