Previsão da comunidade atual
2030 88%Líder entre 7 opções
2030 88%Previsores
43
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+7.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado11/08/24, 16:42 UTC1/02/31, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsRegras
At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.
- Resolves YES if I lose, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- On which years will I win?
- The market will now be resolved according to the outcome of this linked market which gives more details about which language model will win.
- E.g. 2026 in this market corresponds to "Any model announced before 2027" in the other market.
- More details can be found there, but in summary: I’m rated around 1900 FIDE, 2100 USCF.
