Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualJudge David J. Porter 96%Líder entre 3 opções
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado8/09/25, 18:37 UTC8/09/27, 18:23 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
Manifold MarketsWill the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional?
KalshiWill Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?
Manifold MarketsCircuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a court rule Visa violated antitrust law on debit?
KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- For each judge option, resolve YES if that judge votes for an outcome that leaves Kalshi protected from New Jersey enforcement in the Third Circuit appeal KalshiEX LLC v.
- Flaherty, No. 25-1922 (i.e., votes to affirm the district court’s preliminary injunction or otherwise grant relief in Kalshi’s favor).
- A concurrence or dissent explicitly taking Kalshi’s side counts as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- If the appeal is dismissed or mooted without a judge-by-judge merits vote, that option resolves N/A. Source of truth: the Third Circuit docket and the filed opinion.
Mercados abertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- € 12,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 220,4 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-11.0pt40%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.4%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 105,1 mil
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+16.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+20.0pt66%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- A Manifold Markets cota Judge David J. Porter em 96% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? é resolvido?
- Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? deverá ser resolvido em 8 de setembro de 2027.
- Como Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria