Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBy end of June 2027 95.4%Líder entre 17 opções
Previsores
59
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 minutos
11/03/24, 08:10 UTC1/01/27, 12:59 UTC
Tendências
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
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KalshiSpaceX to spin off Starlink in 2026?
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LimitlessRegras
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a Starlink satellite (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise, answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Any type of Starlink satellite counts as long as Starlink is in the name (eg Starshield would not count despite being a close derivative)
- Additionally, the Starlink satellite must be technically capable of functioning (i.e. starlink mass simulators or dummy starlinks wouldn't count), though whether the satellite actually functions successfully or not once in orbit is irrelevant
- Related markets:
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit??
- A Manifold Markets cota By end of June 2027 em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit? é resolvido?
- When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a Starlink satellite (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit