Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBy end of December 2028 87.1%Líder entre 11 opções
Previsores
48
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado11/03/24, 08:27 UTC1/01/27, 12:59 UTC
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiRegras
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- *A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Additional clarifications:
- Payloads designed by SpaceX can count, provided the payload was paid for by an external entity.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit??
- A Manifold Markets cota By end of December 2028 em 87% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? é resolvido?
- When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit