Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2026 66.8%-2.9ptLíder entre 6 opções
Previsores
33
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+11.3 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
13/04/25, 13:37 UTC1/01/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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KalshiRegras
Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.
- When will SSI launch its first product?
- For the purpose of this market, "product" means a paid product based on an AI foundation model, e.g. a chatbot, model API, or "wrapper app".
- This is meant to exclude minor, miscellaneous sources of revenue.
- Maybe this will create edge cases but I don't want to commit to resolving Yes the first year SSI has revenue >$0.
- Update 2025-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Product Scope Update:
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.5pt85%
- December 15,-5.5pt85%
- November 30,-10.5pt82%
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- € 2,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 55,6 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt16.5%
- Grok+1.0pt6.8%
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- Volume total
- € 9,4 mi
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
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POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
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KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
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- Volume total
- € 71,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 34,8 mil
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.5pt52%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2026 em 67% em 13 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? é resolvido?
- When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.