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  3. When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold Markets

When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?

TecnologiaOne-OffSpace8a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
2026 or earlier 4.7%
Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores

17

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 5 dias

Desatualizado
7/03/24, 0:461/01/35, 12:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

2026 or earlier5%

Regras

Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch

Manifold Markets
  • Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
  • The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
  • Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
  • The launches themselves don't need to be successful
  • Starship Super Heavy booster does not need to be its exact name but it must be the first stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle

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Regras

Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch

Manifold Markets
  • Answers resolve NO once date is passed (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
  • The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed
  • Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it
  • The launches themselves don't need to be successful
  • Starship Super Heavy booster does not need to be its exact name but it must be the first stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle