Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual>=2030 30.3%Líder entre 5 opções
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2
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado25/02/26, 04:11 UTC31/12/30, 12:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
This resolves positive when a credible public report describes a fully autonomous upgrade to an app or website of a company worth more than $100M that outperforms the previous version under an A/B test or similarly rigorous measurement.
- I will try to resolve to when the upgrade occurred, rather than when the report was published. "Fully autonomous" means the upgrade was designed, implemented, tested, and deployed by automated systems; human involvement is limited to setting up the system and requesting an upgrade.
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The performance metric will be determined by whatever metric the company chooses to measure performance in their A/B test, not by any specific predefined metric.
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The performance metric used to evaluate the upgrade can be any metric chosen by the company conducting the A/B test.
- There is no restriction on what constitutes a valid performance metric.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test?
- A Manifold Markets cota >=2030 em 30% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test é resolvido?
- When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This resolves positive when a credible public report describes a fully autonomous upgrade to an app or website of a company worth more than $100M that outperforms the previous version under an A/B test or similarly rigorous measurement.