Quais são as probabilidades atuais de What year will the majority of new cars sold in Europe be "battery electric" (BEV)??

A Manifold Markets cota 2030 or later em 95.6% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

What year will the majority of new cars sold in Europe be "battery electric" (BEV)?

EuropaOne-Off4a

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Previsão da comunidade atual

2030 or later 95.6%

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Tipo de pergunta

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Metodologia

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Variação 7d

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Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 hora

Atrasado

30/08/22, 20:43 UTC31/12/30, 22:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

This resolves according to the number published by ACEA, like this one: https://www.acea.auto/figure/fuel-types-of-new-passenger-cars-in-eu/

In 2021 the number for BEV was 9.1%, up from 1% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020.
The EU have decided to ban the sale of new fossil fueled cars from 2035 so presumably that will be the last possible year this can resolve to, but considering how fast BEVs have risen it may well be a majority much earlier.
UPDATE: The number for 2022 was 12.1%
The number for 2023 was 14.6%
The number for 2024 was 13.6%