What will happen to Germany if AfD controlled Chancellorship before 2031?
PolíticaOne-OffGeopolíticaRússia / UcrâniaEuropaEleiçãoClima4aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualGermany goes back to 1933 era 50%Líder entre 14 opções
Previsores
0
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado6/10/26, 14:46 UTC31/12/30, 11:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Germany after the AfD enters federal government: objective measures
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD control chancellorship before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill the population living in territories controlled by the Ukrainian government be under 30 million in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AfD chancellorship make Germany go back to 1933 era before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhich Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- If no member of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is sworn in as the Chancellor of Germany (Bundeskanzler) at any point prior to January 1, 2031, this entire market and all of its individual options will resolve to N/A. If an AfD member does become Chancellor before 2031, the individual options will resolve to YES if the specified event is enacted, officially implemented, or occurs during their tenure (or within one year of their tenure, provided it is still before January 1, 2031).
- Otherwise, they will resolve to NO.
- Because this market allows anyone to add answers (addAnswersMode: ANYONE), newly added options must be resolved under the same conditional rules.
