Previsão da comunidade atual
Other 40%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-10.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado12/10/25, 16:57 UTC1/09/29, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What seat shares will the parties get at the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWhat vote shares will the parties get at the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?
KalshiIf Labour wins the 2024 UK general election, what will average GDP/capita (PPP) growth over the next four years be?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiQuebec general election: PQ number of seats?
KalshiRegras
This market resolves to the four largest parties by number of seats in the UK House of Commons following the next UK general election after the July 2024 election.
- Answers should have the form A > B > C > D, where A is the party with the most seats, B is the party with the second-highest number of seats, and so on.
- Note that this may not correspond to the four parties with the most votes, due to the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system.
- If there is a tie, this market will resolve to PROB, with all answers that are a valid order resolving equally (e.g. if the two largest parties A and B have the same number of seats, and parties C and D are the next largest and also tied, then four answers will resolve to 25% each, i.e. A > B > C > D; B > A > C > D; A > B > D > C; and B > A > D > C).
- Here are the top-four parties by seats for every election since 2000:
- 2024 election: Labour > Conservative > Lib Dem > SNP
Mercados abertos
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 605,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 697,7 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 603,2 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 471,3 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de What will be the four largest parties at the next UK general election in order (by number of seats)??
- A Manifold Markets cota Other em 40% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando What will be the four largest parties at the next UK general election in order (by number of seats)? é resolvido?
- What will be the four largest parties at the next UK general election in order (by number of seats)? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de setembro de 2029.
- Como What will be the four largest parties at the next UK general election in order (by number of seats)? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves to the four largest parties by number of seats in the UK House of Commons following the next UK general election after the July 2024 election.