Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) 46.1%Líder entre 4 opções
Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) 46.1%Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado4/08/26, 13:16 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
will india have a mars space mission in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a space mission focused on the investigation and exploration of Jupiter's moon Io be approved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpace Mission or groundbased observation device whose major objectives from the start include observation of 3l/Atlas?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketWho will be in the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves based on the first confirmed human fatality that occurs from the market creation date onward.
- Options are determined by the mission's overall destination/purpose, not the phase in which death occurs — e.g., a fatality during launch of an Artemis mission resolves "Lunar crewed missions", not "Earth orbit".
- Deaths occurring from lift-off throughout reentry and landing are included.
- Deaths during on-ground tests and activities before liftoff or after landing are excluded.
- Resolves N/A in case no fatality occurs before 2031.
