Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualIt will be released by January 2027 100%Líder entre 9 opções
Previsores
42
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+24.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado25/03/26, 18:11 UTC31/12/26, 19:10 UTC
Tendências
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
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Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".
- The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
Mercados abertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+9.0pt80.2%
- Yes-9.0pt19.8%
- Volume total
- € 15,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,1 mi
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-5.0pt53%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-11.0pt53%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+15.0pt39%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.0pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Jacky Rosen+0.5pt38%
- Kirsten Gillibrand+9.0pt37%
- Ruben Gallego-14.5pt35%
+12 mais resultados
KALSHIHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 50-7.0pt54%
- Above 55-22.0pt42%
- Above 58-8.0pt38%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
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Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- A Manifold Markets cota It will be released by January 2027 em 100% em 15 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? é resolvido?
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".