Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 86.5%
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 22 horas
Desatualizado7/08/25, 09:01 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Fed rate hike by which date?
PolymarketFed rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)
Manifold MarketsFed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
KalshiRegras
The U.S. government is considering a major overhaul of the patent fee model.
- According to The Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department officials are weighing a plan that would charge patent holders 1% to 5% of a patent’s overall value annually—departing from the traditional fixed-fee system in place for over 235 years.
- If implemented, this change could massively increase costs for companies like IBM, Apple, and Samsung, which hold thousands of high-value patents across AI, semiconductors, and biotech.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, the U.S. federal government enacts a law or regulation that introduces a variable annual fee based on a patent’s value (e.g., a percentage of assessed or declared value) instead of—or in addition to—the traditional fixed-fee structure.
- The new pricing model must be active and enforceable (not just proposed) before the resolution date.
Mercados abertos
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 91 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 569,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 47,4 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 359,2 mil
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 mais resultados
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 79,7 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 18,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 7,3 mil
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 87% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? é resolvido?
- US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The U.S. government is considering a major overhaul of the patent fee model.