Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 58.2%
Previsores
49
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
12/10/25, 18:55 UTC30/06/27, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027.
- Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur.
- If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.
Mercados abertos
SportsPOLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs-7.5pt74%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 3.5 total runs-6.5pt65%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 4.5 total runs+0.5pt61%
+26 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 3,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 3,9 mi
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R-1.0pt10.6%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.6%
- San Francisco8%
+29 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 114,8 mi
- Volume 24h
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+27.0pt83.2%
- Milwaukee-26.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- € 1,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,8 mi
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood+2.5pt8.8%
- Ludvig Åberg-0.4pt7.9%
- Matt Fitzpatrick+0.7pt7%
+97 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57.4%
- Clement Tabur42.6%
- Volume total
- € 1,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mi
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+17.0pt62.8%
- Boston-17.0pt37.3%
- Volume total
- € 1,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,3 mi
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 58.2% em 23 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? é resolvido?
- Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de junho de 2027.
- Como Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027.