Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 89.1%
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12
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado14/08/25, 04:32 UTC30/04/27, 22:59 UTC
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What will the next Bond film make at the box office?
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KalshiRegras
[image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- NOTE: I'm adding this higher bar because I want to capture "the sort of casting that would annoy people"—if she shows up as a cameo in the background, it really doesn't matter.
- So if she says any words, that automatically is enough to resolve YES (even if it's a tiny role).
- But if she's a key part of any single scene (e.g., you see her in peril in some action scene), that resolves YES as well.
- My intuitive bar will be roughly "someone be certain to notice her role in the movie if they were looking for it" (if most people watching the movie would have no clue who her character is, e.g., a background cameo, I don't want to resolve it YES).
