Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Other 58%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
40
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+2.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado8/01/24, 12:53 UTC31/12/34, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiRegras
Resolution Clarifications:
- Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year
- "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")
- Mass production indicators:
- first deliveries
- explicit communication of mass production start
Mercados abertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,1 mi
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+19.0pt57%
- 180-199-5.5pt35%
- 200-219-6.8pt5%
+23 mais resultados
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 319,9 mil
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.3%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.2%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.3%
+2 mais resultados
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No50.6%
- Yes49.4%
- Volume total
- € 217,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 215,2 mil
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down - Daily
- Meta (META) Up or Down - Daily
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot?
- A Manifold Markets cota Other em 58% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot é resolvido?
- In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2034.
- Como In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution Clarifications: