In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?
ChinaOne-OffTecnologia
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2030-2034 48%Líder entre 5 opções
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
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Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado28/03/25, 12:27 UTC1/01/51, 23:59 UTC
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This question examines the timeline for China to develop a completely self-sufficient semiconductor industry, achieving technological independence across the entire chip supply chain.
- This would require developing domestic alternatives to replace critical foreign dependencies including advanced chip fabrication (TSMC), cutting-edge lithography equipment (ASML), high-precision optical systems (Zeiss), and other essential technologies currently subject to export controls and sanctions.
- Resolution Criteria
- This question will resolve as "Yes" for a given year if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Advanced Manufacturing Capability: A Chinese company must demonstrate volume production of logic chips at 5 nm process node or smaller with competitive yields - at least 70%.
- Equipment Independence: Chinese companies must supply at least 70% of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment used in Chinese fabs, including Extreme Ultraviolet lithography equipment.
