Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 65%
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54
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado11/12/25, 19:17 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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This is similar to https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big, but I wanted to control for the possibility that abortion might not be a big political issue.
- Update 2026-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the balance of evidence rather than a specific source.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 65% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters? é resolvido?
- In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This is similar to https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big, but I wanted to control for the possibility that abortion might not be a big political issue.