Se Trump for eleito, haverá um cessar-fogo na Ucrânia antes das eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolíticaRussia / UkraineEleição1mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.4%
Previsores
606
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
10/03/24, 05:16 UTC4/11/26, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurIf Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegras
If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
- This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
- This market will resolve to NO otherwise.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-is-elected-will-there-be-1bw27ghde1)Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any cessation of fighting counts, regardless of how it comes about (including surrender scenarios).
- The market will resolve based on whether fighting stops, not the political circumstances that lead to it.
- If the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense appears to be blatantly underreporting casualties, the creator may also consider other reliable sources to determine if fighting is actually ongoing.
