Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 87.3%
Previsores
20
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado21/07/24, 13:42 UTC1/01/28, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected in 2024, he finish his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Barron Trump ever be elected President?
Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
KalshiRegras
Trump has promised no tax on tips, saying it will be "first thing in office"^1.
- It is also part of the republican party platform^2.
- If Trump is elected, will there be no tax on tips by 1st Jan 2028? It doesn't have to be 100% no tax ever paid on any tip but I will resolve according to my wisdom.
- Something like this heuristic: if I go to America to randomish place, and do my normal stuff and pay tips, will at least 70% of instances go lawfully untaxed.
- If Trump is not elected, resolves N/A. 1. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-plan-end-taxes-tips-skepticism-1235062544/ 2. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform
Mercados abertos
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt100%
- $25M+6.0pt100%
- $50M+12.2pt99%
+11 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,8 mi
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84%
- Republican Party+1.0pt16%
- Volume total
- € 25,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 812,5 mil
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.3%
- Gavin Newsom13.3%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,7 mi
- Volume 24h
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-1.4pt98%
- Dan McKee+1.6pt2%
- Gregory Stevens-0.1pt0%
- Volume total
- € 766,5 mil
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate46.6%
- D-House, R-Senate35.9%
- R-House, R-Senate15.5%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,5 mi
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.1pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-0.5pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Texas Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- IA-01 House winner?
- What will Trump say during the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1)?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- MN-01 House winner?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 87% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028? é resolvido?
- If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Trump has promised no tax on tips, saying it will be "first thing in office"^1.