If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoGeopolítica2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 54.6%
Previsores
47
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado31/12/24, 13:07 UTC21/01/29, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans lose the house, will Mike Johnson serve out the whole of his next term?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketRegras
High-ranking Republicans with plausible knowledge by the candidate
- Militias like the Proud Boys count
- MAGA-aligned independent would count
- Needs to have had a significant (>=10%) chance of success, according to traders' opinions
- Aborted plan or random document doesn't count
- Plan needs to be executed, or disrupted by law enforcement