Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 53.5%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado7/09/26, 02:34 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If Saxony-Anhalt holds a snap election before 2028, will the AfD win an absolute majority?
Manifold MarketsNext minister president of Saxony-Anhalt?
Manifold MarketsNext Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?
KalshiWill the next minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt be from AfD?
Manifold MarketsWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
PolymarketSaxony-Anhalt state election: Greens vote percent
KalshiRegras
AfD candidate Siegmund claims (with dubious grammar) that that is what would happen: https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-09/06/afd-spitzenkandidat-siegmund-im-notfall-neuwahlen
- Resolves YES if they win an absolute majority of seats in parliament, i. e. not necessarily 50% of votes.
- [link preview]
Mercados abertos
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-3.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 494,6 mil
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-3.0pt84.2%
- Yes+3.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 809,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 123,4 mil
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+0.5pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.4pt1%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3122%
- October 31+2.0pt10%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 mais resultados
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If nobody is elected minister president of Saxony-Anhalt, will the AfD win an absolute majority in the repeat election??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 54% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If nobody is elected minister president of Saxony-Anhalt, will the AfD win an absolute majority in the repeat election? é resolvido?
- If nobody is elected minister president of Saxony-Anhalt, will the AfD win an absolute majority in the repeat election? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como If nobody is elected minister president of Saxony-Anhalt, will the AfD win an absolute majority in the repeat election? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: AfD candidate Siegmund claims (with dubious grammar) that that is what would happen: https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-09/06/afd-spitzenkandidat-siegmund-im-notfall-neuwahlen