If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?
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Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 23 de out. de 2026, 23:42 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 58%
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31
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado3/07/26, 20:28 UTC3/01/27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the following conditions:
- YES: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027, AND Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear officially appoints a registered Democrat to fill the vacancy.
- An official appointment is defined as Governor Beshear signing an executive order or certificate of appointment naming a registered Democrat, regardless of whether that appointment is subsequently challenged, blocked by courts, or if the individual is successfully seated in the U.S. Senate.
- NO: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before January 3, 2027, but Governor Beshear does not officially appoint a registered Democrat (e.g., if he appoints a Republican, an Independent, or makes no interim appointment at all, allowing the vacancy to proceed directly to an election).
- N/A: If Mitch McConnell does not vacate his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027.