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If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?

PolíticaOne-OffUS Politics Eleição3m

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 68.4%

Previsores

31

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 14 horas

Desatualizado

3/07/26, 20:28 UTC3/01/27, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

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Regras

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the following conditions:
YES: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027, AND Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear officially appoints a registered Democrat to fill the vacancy.
An official appointment is defined as Governor Beshear signing an executive order or certificate of appointment naming a registered Democrat, regardless of whether that appointment is subsequently challenged, blocked by courts, or if the individual is successfully seated in the U.S. Senate.
NO: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before January 3, 2027, but Governor Beshear does not officially appoint a registered Democrat (e.g., if he appoints a Republican, an Independent, or makes no interim appointment at all, allowing the vacancy to proceed directly to an election).
N/A: If Mitch McConnell does not vacate his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027.

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Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat??: A Manifold Markets cota No em 68% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
Quando If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat? é resolvido?: If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat? deverá ser resolvido em 3 de janeiro de 2027.
Como If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat? é liquidado?: A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria

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