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Não 65.3%
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5
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado4/04/26, 12:21 UTC15/08/29, 22:59 UTC
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The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.
- It's possible that this will be an indicator of whether the Labour Party is actually doing okay, or if they need to try a different strategy.
- The reason for the condition is to try to make the market causal on Starmer leaving, by screening off the evidential correlation that Starmer is more likely to stay on if Labour is doing well.
- The complement conditional on Starmer staying is
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-labour-loses-1000-council-seats-gPUU59gIC5)This resolves N/A if Labour doesn't lose over 1000 council seats (either it loses less than 1000 seats, or it gains seats), or if Starmer doesn't leave in 2026.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 65% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? é resolvido?
- If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? deverá ser resolvido em 15 de agosto de 2029.
- Como If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.