Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualAI winter 33.1%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
29
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado2/07/25, 14:51 UTC30/12/34, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsRegras
By default, continued AI development is assumed to lead to existential catastrophe.
- If we survive until 2035, this market asks: what kind of world are we in?
- This is a retrospective counterfactual question: imagine it is January 1st, 2035, and humanity is still alive.
- What explains our survival?
- Resolution Criteria: On December 30th, 2035, this market will resolve to the option that best describes the primary reason humanity avoided extinction by that date.
- Resolution will be based on public evidence and expert consensus to the extent possible.
